Amid economic recession risks

Update: Hong Kong is officially down for a recession. Read here at Reuters.

This is troublesome.

So Billionaire Ray Dalio talked about “capital war” between the US and China, the question now is, how can it be affecting individuals like us?

According to Business Insider, November 15th, 2019, Ray Dalio, the respectable investment guru that founded Bridgewater Associates, which oversees $160 billion in assets, spoke in a meeting of the National Committee on US-China Relations in New York. In mid-October, he spoke about the four current wars include trade war, technology war, currency war and a geopolitical war that were running, warned the leaders about the negative impacts of these tensions on the outcome of the economy. He stressed the importance of collaboration and creation of win-win relationship rather than lose-lose relationship. So far, it is clear that the trade war is bringing in losses for both sides of the aisles rather than being beneficial as many had anticipated.

Reading about that, personally I would have at least two concerns:

  • How am I as an individual, care about this and have a cool head to analyse the situation further?
  • What are some actions I should take, and how can I help others to do the same?

So I have been pretty depressed reading the news amid the escalating tensions, but hey, it’s not all that are negative, fortunately. An appropriate action to take is to see where the opportunities for growth and expansion are. For the US firms, they are now having a leverage domestically because now they are protected from the Chinese competitors. For the Chinese firms, possibly the most domestically benefited company is Huawei, as patriotics turned to the brand more and more than ever before, regardless how its international sale plummeted. This led to a 66% increase year-on-year (YoY) for Q3 2019, marking its record high performance in the mainland. Of course, it is not enough to depict the whole picture of consequences, as several other Chinese firms are also facing hardship in the US market. However, meanwhile, a trade war might not be as dismal. Especially for someone who can take advantage of it, like how Argentina does with its soybeans export, it might say that we don’t have to flow downwind and lose our sight of reality. As an individual, we can think of it as a sport tournament (give it a reference to chess, or whatever board game you are interested in). Much more studying into game theory may be helpful, but basically, it’s something we can speculate rather than participate in (unless you do gamble on the stadium and profit from taking chances). However, it’s helpful to watch each sides’ strategy, which might be benevolent to your prospective participation in the real game. What I am doing here, is to take note, and share it with you. You might choose to read my interpretation, or come up with your own. It’s up to you whether you can use it for consultancy or making decisions. In case it’s the latter, you might not want to rely on my interpretation…that’s my honest advices. To be honest, learn data analysis, financial management guys. I’m diving myself into it too.

Another article I was drawn into was an article published on LinkedIn Future of Work – The 5 Most Important Job Skills for the Future (published on November 12, 2019) by Bernard Marr. He was a LinkedIn influencer, internationally best-selling author, keynote speaker, futurist, and everything that HBR tells you to be. So with much respect, I would definitely take his advices and see what I can turn myself into (Sad thing is, I really know what I want. I want to have the ability to assemble the best team in the world to help my with tasks, and that I can assign them with tasks, treat them like my assistants, and be like a boss. I also want to have enough money to finance them, so they can also enjoy the financial benefit of working for me and be happy and joyful and productive. That’s the plan. I just think that I’m not that educated and confident yet, to tell people what to do? Unless they are on the same tasks like me. See, task delegation is important. That’s what it make you to become a great leader).

“An important aspect of this preparation is to develop the job skills that will help you succeed and thrive in the new reality of the next decade”

Well, not only the next decade, but I guess that’s what it should be aimed for. One of my very entrepreneurial friends have already develop this 5 years vision for himself, and I’m here questioning myself so much. Maybe it shouldn’t be that bad. Maybe I should. Have a freaking vision baby.

Again, this list is mostly for current or prospective employees who are looking for level up their quality. These for sure, are important for lady bosses, and gentlemen bosses alike, that in order to become a leader, he or she needs another different set of skills. You can learn them through books, but best in practices.

The 5 most important skills according to Barnard Marr:

  1. Emotional Intelligence (personally I’m quite confident with this)
  2. Creativity (this too)
  3. Flexibility and adaptability: This is super important, as I have seen many leaders talked about the rapid change in the workforce at the moment. 
  4. Data literacy: This is top of my go-to list, since I have significant low confidence in this field. First off, it’s the fuel of the current economy. However, it is important to notice that data is worthless unless insights are extracted and better decisions are made accordingly. So as suggested my Marr, “keep asking ‘why’ and own the data you are already exposed to”, and figure out how to utilize the data as its best values.
  5. Tech savviness: AI, Big data, extended reality robotics, IoTs, 3D printing, and blockchain, etc. we need to understand what these changes are, how fast these different technologies are developing and what that means for my business.

In additions to the above lists, there are so many things you can get your hands on, like reading news and discuss it with your colleagues (basic steps). Discuss with your mentors and financial advisors about your business strategies and what it is going to be during the next 1-5 years. It’s easy to lust around and wait until the first day of January to write a new year resolution, but that’s often time helpless. Things are turning fast and you don’t want to wait until then to react to what it is already happening now.

Anyway, cheers for a long post. Times for homeworks.

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